Just Like Romo’s Playoff Hopes, This Bird Is Done

Houston @ Detroit

This game was a Thanksgiving sized feast for a few lucky owners. Calvin Johnson had another Megatron level performance grabbing 8 balls for 140 yards and a TD. Little known Joique Bell continued to impress averaging 9.4 yards a carry and a TD. Look for him to continue to take carries in a backup role in Detroit.

With Titus Young suspended by the team Detroit’s investment in the rookie widout Broyles is starting to pay off. Broyles had 6 grabs for 126 yards. Pick him up NOW! In Detroit’s pass happy offense he’ll only get more balls thrown his way in the weeks to come.

For the Texans Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson had big days. Johnson has made his early season lows a distant memory totalling 188 yards today despite not finding the endzone. The TD’s will come with production like that. J Forsett was the benefit of a hissy fit (and a hissy fit inducing rule from the NFL) from Lion’s coach Jim Schwartz but don’t look for that sort of flukey production going forward. Not every week will he get an 80 yard run after clearly being down.

After the main course served up by the Lions and Texans just deserts were on the table in Dallas. RGIII is a monster, ’nuff said. Even conservative, veteran fantasy players like myself have to admit the hype on this kid was real. ESPN’s QBR stat doesn’t correlate perfectly to fantasy points but RGIII was nearly perfect in the first half and there isn’t a fantasy owner out there that wouldn’t love this kid on their team. He’s the first rookie QB to throw for 4 Tds in back to back starts. Morris and Gardon benefited from the attention on RGIII with Morris going for over 100 yards and a TD, Garcon had 93 yards and a TD.

Cowboys fans had little to cheer for but Dez Brytant owners were rewarded for their patience as the mercurial wideout had a monster day with 145 yards and two touchdowns. Byrant seems to have gotten his head screwed on straight and I’d look for more of the same going forward. He is a “buy low” trade target. Jason Witten had 9 catches for 74 yards and you’ll take that from your TE.

And finally in New Jersey it was the Jets that were the Turkeys of the day. Tom Brady again made it look easy totallying over 300 yards and a rushing TD. Shane Veeren came out of nowhere (owned only 24% of leagues on NFL.com) for 19.3 fantasy points. He might be a flash in the pan but with Brady spreading out the wealth and Gronkowksi out, he might be a flash worth looking at.

As for the Jets, well, Keller had a TD and 64 yards, but with the noodle-armed Sanchez throwing him the ball, I’d looke elsewhere for TE production going forward.

Fresh pods, for your personal enjoyment:

1) The Fantasy Fumble, Episode 71: #Gambling: http://goo.gl/gPjYK

2) FANHOODS, Episode 1: Body, Money, Art: http://fanhoods.com/?p=54

3) Healthanova, Episode 1: It’s Good To Be Back: http://healthanova.com/?p=47

Thanks for maybe listening, and being a part of this hitherto fun adventure. There’s certainly more to come from 1616 Media and The Norton Network.

We’re looking for some great writers to help us build our network. If you’re a #Fumbler4Life with some things to say, then go ahead and reach out to us and we’ll set you up with a writer’s account on TheFantasyFumble.com! You’ll get MASSIVE exposure to our fan base, and, most importantly, it’s fun!

Happy to welcome new fantasy football blogs to TheFantasyFumble.com‘s blogroll:

Fantasay Football Librarian . 4For4 . Athlon Sports . Bruno Boys . David Gonos . Fantasy Football Calculator . The Fantasy Football Geek Blog . Fantasy Football Nerd . Fantasy Football Xtreme . FantasyNewsNetwork . Draft Calc . Dynasty League Football . Fantasy Alarm . Fantasy Football Freaks . Fantasy Football Companion . FFLockerRoom . Fantasy Knuckleheads . Fantasy Sharks . FFToday . FFToolbox . Go Ahead Score . OurLads . KFFL . Pigskin Addiction . Pro Football Talk . Pro Football Focus . Chinstrap Ninjas . Fantasy Pros . Cheat Sheet Wizard . Fantasy Rundown . Football Docs . Football Guys . Lester’s Legends . Mock Draft Central . NFL.com Fantasy . RotoWorld . The Hazean . Eric Karabell Blog . Football.Razzball . The Fifth Down . Fantasy Alarm . Fantasy Guru .

 

Let me help you be just a bit better than the rest

 

I believe that I am better than the average fantasy football player, but before last season I had no way in turning my above average fantasy knowledge into anything more than Barry Nation bragging rights. This is where weekly fantasy football on draftstreet.com has come into play.  I have found a way to make money on my upper 51% fantasy skills, and it is called 10 man double-up salary cap fantasy football.  The rules of the game are simple.  You start with $100,000 and must fill 10 positions: 2 QBs, 2RBs, 2WRs, 2Flexes, TE, and a D.  In order to cash in a 10 man double up league you must finish 5th or better.  Over the past two years that I have been playing I have determined that you need to score around 130 fantasy points in order to finish in the top half.  So I have done some simple math in order to determine how many points a given player must score in order to be worth their salary.  I took the $100,000 total salary and divided it by the 130 points needed to win to find the amount of money needed per fantasy point.  Thus in order to score a total of 130 fantasy points you must score 1 point for every 100,000/130 or about $770 spent.  This number makes analyzing individual player salaries much simpler.  All you have to do is take a player’s salary and divide it by 770 and you get a figure for how many fantasy points that player must score in order for your team to score 130.

 

Now if you are still with me let’s look at this week’s gems that I have mined out of the depths of draftstreet.com’s salary cap leagues.  I have gone ahead and divided each player’s salary by 770 to give you what I will refer to as the “draftstreet index” in future articles.

Generally I feel like this week’s RBs are the best position to find good value.

 

 

QBs Salary Draftstreet Index
Peyton Manning @CAR 15,936 20.7pts
Ryan Tannehill vsTEN 11,252 14.6pts

 

 

RBs Salary Draftstreet Index
Ray Rice vsOAK 16,481 21.4pts
Stevan Ridley vsBUF 12,316 16pts
M. Turner @NO 10,431 13.5pts
Frank Gore vsSTL 11,671 15.2pts
CJ Spiller @NE 10,932 14.2pts

 

 

WRs Salary Draftstreet Index
Mike Wallace vsKC 11,396 14.8pts
Emmanuel Sanders vsKC 5,431 7pts
Danario Alexander @TB 4,567 5.9pts
Brandon LaFell vsDEN 4,504 5.8pts

 

 

TEs Salary Draftstreet Index
Brandon Myers @TB 6,768 8.8pts
Joel Dreesen @CAR 4,991 6.5pts
Heath Miller vsKC 9,815 12.7pts

 

 

Ds Salary Draftstreet Index
Steelers vsKC 8,035 10.4pts
Seahawks vsNYJ 7,171 9.3pts

 

Honorable mention to the beast Marshawn Lynch or Turbin.  Lynch is dealing with back and wrist issues, so if he is healthy sunday he is definitely worth a look, and if he is inactive then his backup Turbin is a must start against the Jets 29th ranked rush D.  For more lengthy and hopefully comical explanations of my favorite draftstreet players check out the Fumble’s Draftstreet podcast on iTunes or podbean.com.  If you haven’t joined draftstreet yet, do yourself a favor and click through the link on the right for an extra 30% bonus on your initial deposit…. #Fumbler4Life

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A new #gambling pod is up at The Fantasy Fumble iTunes store, if you’re into that kind of thing. Check it out at http://bit.ly/RTIpne.

Also, here are some nice fantasy football pieces written by our soon-to-be Pulitzer-worthy in-house writer, math major George B:http://bit.ly/RGbQMp, and http://bit.ly/Z1EB8a.

Hope you enjoy!

Making you $$$$

In prepping for the always popular #Gambling pod I usually come across a few “Locks” that with out fail always turn out to be losers on sunday. Recently I have found some modest success betting the biggest sucker bet our there, the three team teaser. For all those non gamblers out there let me explain to you the easiest sounding bet in sports gambling. The three team teaser allows you to move the line 10 full points as long as you pick three games. You only get 1:1 odds, but every week it seems like an easy bet. However all you need is one thing to go wrong, and in the NFL things usually do.

With that being said let me pitch to you this week’s seemingly easy bet. I like to use this bet as a way to bet heavy favorite playing truly bad teams that I think have quit on the year. Since we are entering the second half of the season, it loos like the group of quitters seems to grow faster than young job seekers in this down economy. Remember you need to pick three games so here we go:

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh -13, adjusted line= Pit -3
This is why the three team teaser always sounds so easy. This truly is a tale of two teams headed in the exact opposite direction. Freshly off a road victory @NYG the Steelers return home with the #1 ranked Defense in the NFL when it comes to avg yards against. Draftstreeters (Yeah I just made up a noun) should be drooling over the opportunity to buy M Wallace at the modest price of 11,396 going up against the 30th ranked scoring defense of the Chiefs. The Chiefs on the other hand appear to have quit on the season right at the halfway point. It is hard to single out just one of KC’s terrible stats, but the stinker that jumps off the page for me is KC’s -20 turnover margin! If Rivers can beat the Chiefs by 18 at home, then the red hot Steelers have to be able to cover 3 right? Cue the Steelers let down overtime FG victory…..

Buffalo @ New England -11, adjusted line= NE -1
There are a few november traditions in America: Election day, Thanksgiving, and The Pats beating the crap out of the Bills. Usually the Bills put up a decent fight early in the year, then by winter Buffalo’s offense goes as cold as the weather. Well the Bills may have gotten an early start on the whole “quit on the season” tradition. If you take out the Bills 34 points they scored against the terrible Titans in a loosing effort, you get 30 total points in the last 3 games. That is really bad. Especially when you consider the Patriots average a league best 32.8 per game. If the Pats can’t cover a 1 point spread at home, coming off a bye, and playing the bills, then I don’t believe in stats or data.

St. Louis @ San Francisco -11.5, adjusted line= SF -1.5
There was a point in the season that everyone believed the 49ers to be the best team in the NFL right? The bye week should help a 49ers D that has allowed only 12.9 pints per game. The Niners have only allowed 9 TDs all year, and the Rams have only scored 12 themselves. My math here is as follows; (Great D, off a Bye, @home) + (Terrible offense on the road)= 49ers win by more than 1.5.

Again every week this bet seems easy, and more times than I would like to admit something goes wrong. However my formula of bad quitting team on the road vs a legit super bowl contender seems to be perfectly qualified this week. I say it every time, but there is no way I lose right? Jinx…….

Darren McFadden’s Screen Saver

Week 10 Waiver Report by George Barrett

With the litany of key injuries in week 9 I imagine a lot of you guys are looking for some waiver help. Well I have taken the time out of my above average podcasting day to give you the answers to the weekly waiver quiz. I like to rate the importance of waiver pickups on a 10 point scale:

1= no need whatsoever
5= minimum fantasy value to be worth a waiver selection
6= a short term fix, example: Felix Jones this year
10= a must have, drop everything you are doing to put in a waiver clam this week. Example: Peyton Hillis pre-Madden Cover

So here are my answers:

Waiver Order:

1)TY Hilton- importance rating-=7
It is no secret this year that the Colts will be passing a lot. Andrew Luck has already thrown 336 times through just 8 games. Before last week the vast majority has been to Reggie Wayne, and the remainder was split between a multitude of fantasy irrelevant players. Then Donnie Avery injured his hip, and TY started to turn it on. 11 targets, 6 rec, 102 yards, and 1TD later we may have a newly relevant WR in Indy. This of course may change, but this is as good a sign as it gets. Simple fantasy math: Injury+Solid performance= Worth a waiver

2)Oakland Backup RBs- importance rating=6
During the preseason I became a closet fan of speedy backup RB Taiwan Jones. Many times during the preseason Jones flashed a special burst in the open field that made me take notice. I am a fan of explosive RBs that can turn a small seam into 6, and Taiwan Jones has that in spades. Unfortunately for Taiwan his upside is capped due to multiple factors. The first being injured RBs Goodson and DMC’s high ankle sprains will eventually heal. Secondly, I’m not sure that the Raiders coaching staff believes in the talent of Taiwan as much as I do. I imagine Oakland will shift to a more passing centric game plan. Marcel Reece will also come into the mix as well. The shifty fullback has shown goal line aptitude along with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Finally we are talking about Raider RBs, so there is a celling on the fantasy value of either backup. Having said all that, both are worth a pickup. Taiwan is the higher upside home run hitter, and Reece is the goal line TD vulture. One of these guys should be relevant for the next few weeks.
The Rest:Need based players
I’m not sure any of these are worth a spot on your fantasy team unless you have a need at TE. I will simply list the rest with a quick rating because I did want to be on record as at least giving these guys a mention:

3)Emmanuel Sanders,WR PIT- rating=4. With Brown’s ankle injury Sanders could see about 8 fantasy points per week until Brown is healthy.

4)Gresham, TE CIN- rating 4. Somebody has to be the #2 target in Cincinnati and after 8 targets, 6 rec, and 108 yards you can make a good case that Gresham is that #2

5)Brandon Myers, TE OAK- rating 4. This is why you never pay for TEs in the draft. Did you know that Myers is the #8 fantasy TE this year? Well he is, and with DMC out I bet Oak throws it even more.

6)Isaac Redman, RB PIT-rating 4. It is weird to say that a PIT RB coming off a 100+ yard game is this low on the waiver order, but Dwyer will probably be back this week and Mendenhall should follow soon. It’s too crowded in PIT to fully endorse any single RB
Josh Morgan, WR Wash- rating 4. Somebody is going to become the #1 target of RG3, and with Garcon’s gimpy foot why not Josh Morgan after 12 targets last week?

7)Mark Ingram, RB NO- rating 4. Ingram did win a Heisman in college right? With Sproles out for probably the rest of the season, one would expect N.O. to give a Heisman winner a try. Then again they didn’t let Reggie Bush have the job either.

8)Logan Paulsen, TE Wash. 3 TEs on waivers this week…. Did I mention you shouldn’t pay for TEs in the draft?

Dear future ex-coach of the Philadelphia Eagles,

You have one of the best backs in the entire NFL, GIVE THE DAMN BALL TO SHADDY!!!! Us as fantasy owners did all we could do to draft or trade for LeSean McCoy this year. You got to start the year with the #2 fantasy back on your roster. After watching your pathetic attempt to save your job in New Orleans, we are now convinced that you must hate red zone touchdowns. Your team managed to march the ball up and down the field on the toothless Saint defense, a defense that ranked dead last in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed going into week 9. Your offense got into the red zone 5 times while averaging 7.6 yards per rush. If only you had a highly paid running back that was talented enough to pick up a rushing TD every once in a while, oh wait YOU EMPLOY LESEAN MOTHER F’ING McCOY!! Last year McCoy had 20 total TDs, 17 on the ground. During the offseason you paid him to $45,000,000 to carry the ball for you, so why not let him earn his contract by running the ball near the goal line?

We know that fantasy football may not be the same as “real football”, but it is very obvious to all McCoy owners that you are not giving LeSean his share of the goal line load. Through 9 games Shaddy has racked up146 rushing attempts. He is on pace for about 292 carries which is 19 more attempts than last year. McCoy only has 2 rushing TDs on the year, last year he finished with 17!!! I’ve never been called an “Offensive Genius” , but even this above average fantasy podcaster can tell that you have not given Shaddy the ball enough near the goal line to be successful.

It was a good run Andy, but it is now obvious that we have reached an end of an era. Since you have lost your job already, you might as well make the a few million LeSean McCoy fantasy owners happy by giving the ball to LeSean when you get close. Who knows, maybe Shaddy will be able to score a few red zone touchdowns for you in the process. At the very least you could take a little pressure off a struggling $100,000,000 QB.

Sincerley,
Losing Fantasy Football Owners who drafted last year’s #2 fantasy RB Hey Andy, do you even remember what this looks like?

I have been watching the NFL from a distance since I was old enough to operate a remote. Back in those days, there was a thing called “local network coverage”. It may sound archaic now, but, when I was a kid, there were only two 1pm games on TV and just one 4pm game. The match-ups were based on your region, and unfortunately for me that meant a cluster-f*ck of the mediocre Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts. Those two teams were rarely a recipe for exciting football. Thus, if I had the chance to go to any live football game as a kid, I would jump on the opportunity without a second thought. The sounds of 70,000+ drunk NFL fans and the smell of stale beer still conjure up some of the best childhood memories I have. All this changed when DirecTV created what I consider to be the greatest invention man has every made, besides The Fantasy Fumble (find us on twitter.com, facebook, YouTube, and WordPress) of course.  Somewhere around 2000 I was first introduced to the wonder of DirecTV’s Sunday ticket, and I don’t think I was ever the same.

 

At first the immediate draw of the ticket was the priceless opportunity it afforded me to see my favorite athlete, ever, live every sunday: the great Barry Sanders. Growing up in the talent black hole of Colts/Bengals country, I was forced to follow the greatest running back of all time through box scores, highlights, and the annual Thanksgiving Lions game. It was never fulfilling until DirecTV brought this deprived Lions fan a healthy dose of Barry every Sunday!

 

As I grew up and began to make enough money to afford my own place and electronic entertainment, my obsession with the shield grew as well.  With the help of a healthy unhealthy appetite for fantasy football and multiple televisions, my fanhood shifted from a single-team-fan to just a fan of the entire league.  I noticed myself caring more about my own fantasy players than the good fortunes of my cursed Detroit Lions.  It didn’t help when Detroit let Barry walk away from the all-time rushing yards record just one season’s production short of immortality.  Eventually I gave into fantasy football.

 

Now I only care about my fantasy team.  The final score of any real NFL game means nothing to me, unless I have a friendly wager on the point spread.  Individual teams are uninteresting to me now.  I just want to watch individual players score fantasy points.  In order to fulfill my obsession, I have built what I refer to as the football “Bat Cave” in my house: six HD flat screens mounted on the wall that give DirecTV’s Sunday Ticket the instruments needed to perform a fantasy symphony every Sunday at The Fumble headquarters in Louisville, KY.  Watching six games simultaneously  is both overwhelming and intoxicating.  The entertainment is so addicting that I now have a serious crisis of identity.  I have no idea what my fan label is anymore.

 

I recently have been asked multiple times to attend live football games and sit on the 1st row right at the 50-yard-line.  And, every time, I have decline without even checking my schedule!  I am addicted to watching all of the games at once! The thought of missing any 4-yard-run by a fantasy relevant player is too scary to accept any game invite, even to Ford Field, to see my beloved Lions.  To be honest, I don’t even enjoy the NFL Playoffs anymore.  One game at a time is just too slow for me these days.  If you asked me which one I would rather watch – the Super Bowl, live, or week 3 of the regular season at the “Bat Cave” – I would choose a full day hiding out in the “Bat Cave” with my six TVs and my MacBook Pro every time. Am I even a fan anymore?

 

When you look at the facts it is hard to come up with a label for me.  I don’t really have a favorite team anymore, at least not a real team.  I would rather watch the regular season 1:00pm games than any playoff game in-person, and even the Super Bowl is boring to me now.  So I ask you guys: what am I?  Am I a super fan or just a super fantasy nerd? Please comment because I am having a crisis of identity. Thanks!

Crunched Episode 55 of The Fantasy Football Fumble last night. We’re now heavily on YouTube, Podbean, and twitter. Farmer is still not comfortable with the camera being on . . .

Find more of The Fantasy Football Fumble on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/fantasyfumble and on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/fantasyfumble

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